end of the world as we know it

From: http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/viewpoints/articles/0406vip-mcpherson0406.html

End of the world as we know it

You might feel fine, but high oil cost, scarcity mean American Empire is about to come crashing down
Guy R. McPherson - University of Arizona professor
April 5, 2008

Peak oil spells the end of civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species.

M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production.

The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down.

Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down.

We have sufficient supply to keep the world running for 30 years or so, at the current level of demand. But that's irrelevant because the days of inexpensive oil are behind us. And the American Empire absolutely demands cheap oil. Never mind the 3,000-mile Caesar salad to which we've become accustomed. Cheap oil forms the basis for the 12,000-mile supply chain underlying the "just-in-time" delivery of plastic toys from China.

There goes next year's iPod.

In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the sociopolitical and economic consequences of expensive oil.

We passed the world oil peak in 2005, and we've been easing down the other side by acquiring oil at the point of a gun - actually, guns are the smallest of the many weapons we're using - paying more for oil and destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries.

The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days.

Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream.

In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.
After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid.

Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.

If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.

The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart.

On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world's species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing our extinction at our own hand.

Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours.
For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.

It's time to push away from the shore, to let the winds of change catch the sails of our leaky boat.

It's time to trust in ourselves, our neighbors and the Earth that sustains us all.
Painful though it might be, it's time to abandon the cruise ship of empire in exchange for a lifeboat.
---

Quote :

In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.
After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid.

Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.

If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.

The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart.

MID I believe these predictions will soon be realized, if we do not try to curb our dependency on oil, but I do not see us doing that. It is ingrained in each of us to consume energy without even thinking about it. I know I would be lost without my computer. The two weeks I did without it made me realize how dependant I am on it. I pay all my bills online. I have probably only written two checks all year for doctor bills or something, but I do everything online. As for driving we all live too far from our jobs now to walk or commute with a bicycle or something else. I know I cannot see my soul matey riding a bike for over 35 miles to work one way. That would be absurd, not to mention he would probably keel over with a heart attack.

This is painful to write, but it is in keeping with what is necessary and what we must focus our attention on. At first (years ago) I was determined never to comment upon end of world, end of times rumors/myths/or truths (there are more than one), thinking I was buying into it, only adding fuel to the fire. But it is clear that is not the case. We must address this right now. We cannot hide behind kind, positive, well-meaning words.

THIS IS THE TIME FOR ACTION, LEARNING HOW TO SURVIVE LOCALLY, LITERALLY.

(Learn how to walk, begin practicing walking, adding milage every day until you find fresh water in nature, find it, put it in a bucket, carry it home and live on it as long as you can, then do it once more, for example, for a start!)

Everything in the McPherson article is correct and there's even more. disaster heading our way. BUT ITS in the response I wish to address a few things. First of all, I have faith in everyone here at the nest, as well as at least a few friends of mine.

Secondly, I wish to describe myself a little bit more. This is to encourage you to have faith in yourself, not to encourage you to feel good about me (you'al have been MORE than good to me here, encouraging me to continue to post as well as giving me hope that this is worth doing).

I live on 632 dollars a month (SSI), that is all, except I sell an occasional drawing, fetich, dreamcatcher which my fingers still manage to complete (I have steel plates in wrists and hand pasted back onto my arm after moto accident 22 years ago). I have steel plates in my knees, one leg does not bend, it is painful to walk. I too thought I would be lost without my computer, but when the news MID posted came to me (same kind of research, same info/stats) nine years ago, I told myself, "I WILL FIND A WAY TO SURVIVE REGARDLESS OF MY INJURIES> I WILL GO TO THE WILDERNESS, LEARN WHAT I NEED TO KNOW< WILL COME BACK AND TELL THE WORLD. I WILL GET A COMPUTER SOMEHOW AND DO IT."

GUESS WHAT, FOLKS? I DID ALL THAT! YES, THANKS TO A COUPLE OF FRIENDS (ONE WHO LOANED ME 500 DOLLARS) AND A FAMILY MEMBER, WHO ALSO JUST GAVE ME 500 DOLLARS, in five years I saved up 2,500 bucks and bought the computer I am now using. In 1999, I took my car (a 2-seat Ford fairmont my mom gave me for ONE DOLLAR), no insurance, barely enough money for gas, and drove up onto the desert floor on LS Mesa in the shadow of Bear Mountain, NM, the place my spirit guides told me to go, and with prayer and determination, parked it, left it ther, built a tipi/home out of bear grass and downed yucca poles, and lived throughout an entire winter, 9,000 feet elevation. No fresh water anywhere. YES I WALKED 35 MILES INTO SILVER CITY, BROUGHT HOME 3 GALLONS OF FRESH WATER EVERY TWO WEEKS, DIDN'T HAVE A HEART ATTACK, NO PAIN PILLS FOR MY LEGS WERE NEEDED, BROUGHT STONES BACK IN MY BACK PACK ALL THE WAY UP TO FIFTY POUNDS WORTH, MADE MY MEDICINE WHEEL, ATE PRICKLY PEARS, MUSHROOMS, JUNIPER BERRIES, AND DRIED FOOD I BOUGHT AT SILVER CITY WHEN I WENT INTO THE CITY. I DID THAT FOR A YEAR WITH LITTLEBEAR (he ate what I did) TO LEARN HOW TO SURVIVE, TO SEE IF I COULD SURVIVE!!!!!

I did, and I am here to tell you. No, I don't have a job, No, I don't have a wife or child to support. No I didn't do it all on my own, BUT I DID MOST OF IT BY MY OWN DETERMINATION, AND THE HELP OF CREATOR GOD AND THE ANCESTORS WHO GUIDED ME THROUGHOUT AND STILL DO. YOU CAN DO THE SAME WHEN YOU ARE CALLED UPON. None of this "I lost, I don't know what I would do, no more of this, I can't." WE HAVEN'T GOT TIME FOR THIS. YOU WON'T NEED IT! I REPEAT, IF I CAN DO IT, SO CAN ANYONE OF YOU!!!!!. And now I don't have a car, can't drive, and COULD WALK TO BOSTON MOUNTAINS, SPRING when called upon. Yes, Little Bear and I COULD walk 3,000 miles if need be. I COULD be another FOREST GUMP CHARACTER, WHY NOT? I may be seeing you guys sooner than I expected!

AHO- end of sermon

THERE ARE THIRTEEN MAJOR RIVERS THAN FALL FROM BOTH SIDES OF THE DIVIDE, Most of the Missouri, Yellowstone, Canadian, Platte, Medicine Bow, Red, Arkansas, and Black Warrior rivers, etc empty into the Mississippi, then The Gulf of Mexico. (Colorado empties into Gulf of California/Mexico, Rio Grande, Pecos, EMPTY INTO THE GULF> THEY WILL BACK UP IN ONE FELL SWOOP!)

The rest, The Fraser, The Snake, The Green, The Bear, The White, and the Columbia/Willamette system empty into The Pacific. The force of sustained waves (16 feet high week after week aftermath) which created The Amazon will recreate the Mississippi/Missouri system, The Colorado/Rio, Pecos, Gila river system, The Snake/Columbia/Willamette/Umpqua system, all have a place (their headwaters, (13 of 'em) representing the 13 scales of Grandmother Turtle. Watch how she moves her head (lakes Region), her spine (The Rockies/Continental Divide, her tail (Mexico) and her four legs, front legs (Alaska/Barrier Straits) and GreatLakes/NE US Lawrence Seaway/Maine), her hind legs (Californis/Baja) and Georgia/Alabama/Florida . WHAT DO YOU HAVE IF TURTLE IS ANGRY WITH US? A BIG MESS! GET WITH IT, FOLKS. GRANDMOTHER TURTLE IS ANGRY WITH US, ONE SHIFT OF ANY OF HER PARTS SPELLS DISASTER. CAN WE DO ANYTHING ABOUT THIS? In part, yes. We can ask for help, ask forgiveness, vow to stop this madness, force our politic/corporate greed to stop this madness, corral them up, if need be, and maybe she might give as a break! End of second sermon- Aho!

THIRD SERMON: We'VE KNOWN THIS FOR OVER THIRTY YEARS (the digging into Her core for sweet crude, or sour crude) WE ARE NOW (in CANADA) DOING EVEN MORE DIGGING instead of using material topside. WHAT? WE DON'T HAVE ENOUGH ALTERNATIVE FOR THE 300 MILLION OF US? HOGWASH!!!!!! WE HAVE IT WE JUST WON'T PRODUCE IT, OR WE WON'T FORCE OUR MANUFACTURERS/CORPORATIONS/GOVERNMENTS TO DO IT. WE'VE HAD THIRTY YEARS TO REPLACE UNDERGROUND FOSSIL-FUELS WITH TOPSIDE, PLANT,FERTILIZER/AIR/SOLAR on a steady uphill basis. WE COULD HAVE DONE THIS IN THIRTY YEARS TIME, BUT WE DIDN'T. (WE PAID CORN AND WHEAT FARMERS BILLIONS NOT TO PRODUCE, CLAIMING IT WOULD FLOOD THE MARKET. Statistics show there is enough farmland, water and seed to turn Kansas and Iowa into a fuel source for the entire country. This also is a known fact. WILL WE GET ANOTHER THIRTY? Hmmmm........ One country did stop digging, and buying into it. That has been Brazil (went from 15% hybrid to 60% during those thirty years into topside alternatives now reaching 80%)

It's not over yet, but it sure is getting close. Whose statistics will those in power listen to, any? It doesn't appear to be so. I was saying thirty years ago, if the river floods, those in the mansions along the banks will drown just as easily as the bums who live under the bridge.....its the folks whose mansions are built on the hill we need to address....then again, if it is the plate/shelf itself that shifts, even that won't save them. Seems we all better get down on our knees every day and pray that something drastic will happen to change their minds. Its always worth a try. Maybe Grandmother is listening as I type and maybe there are thousands, millions even who ARE listening, thinking these same thoughts. Its those folks with the mansions on the hill.......

FOURTH SERMON:

August 12th, 1904

"And if there is one thing more that I must say to you, it is this: Do not believe that he who seeks to comfort you lives untroubled among the simple and quiet words that sometimes do you good. His life has much difficulty and sadness and remains far behind yours. Were it otherwise he would never have been able to find these words...."
Yours, Rainer Maria Rilke (Letter to a Young Poet)

FINAL SERMON ON THIS SUBJECT:

Upon asking Spirit to guide me this week, White Eagle told me, "Thank you for the work you have done. Now we ask you to make a decision about what you plan to do next. It will be painful at first, but you must do it. It will affect you the rest of your life."

I then asked Spirit for advice. He then said, " Go to your medicine wheel oracle, choose a card, then do your I Ching reading." I did both.

I received Otter (playfulness and joy) and Iching 22, (Grace), Keeping still over the mountain, both the feminine energy of beauty and grace.

We are told quite simply, Beauty and Grace (the moon and the stars) are not as essential to life as are The Sun and The Ocean, but the warrior on the path of beauty has chosen to beautify the world, thus offering comfort to his people for a brief moment in time, to soothe the world. In this way he can change the world, never forgetting, however, that in service to god and to mankind, one must use one's art sparingly, remembering that he is always at the mercy of much greater forces. Nevertheless,the balance between work, play and rest is a necessity. Balance between beauty and ugliness (of land, people & spirit) is a real possibility. Be well, brother and sister, you have been given the opportunity to be at play as Otter and Dolphin do (so much of the time--they have no enemies, always plenty of fish to eat). This is a time of pure joy for those of you (he is speaking to everyone here at the nest) to continue steadfastly on the path of beauty and wisdom, making sure that you remain steadfast and calm. There is beauty everywhere, even among the most ugly and discomforting times you all must learn how to navigate yourselves (through), sharing all the joy you find wherever you can. Do not wait until someone asks you for it. You have plenty to share. Be well, everyone. White Eagle, Thoth, and The Sacred Brotherhood are watching over you as we speak. Aho!

Thank you for all your words here WildDove. They touch me to the very core. Keep posting and sharing for we are all akin to these words, and know that deep down they reverebate with all of us....

Always,

LittleFire